Forecasting the arrival of Peak Oil (the point at which production of oil reaches a maximum and begins to inexorably decline) more than ten years ahead of some other models, a research group at the University of Kuwait used an updated version of the Hubbert model (which correctly estimated the peak output of U.S. oil production) to estimate a date of 2014. Using the new model, trends in 47 oil producing countries were analyzed. From this it was predicted that conventional crude oil will peak in 2014, with the world’s reserves declining at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model includes a more detailed picture of oil production cycles for countries where technology changes, politics, and other factors play a major role in production.
Given that the world’s demand for oil is at a relatively low point (due to the worldwide recession), this prediction of Peak Oil by 2014 is somewhat startling. If this model is persuasive, many other models – especially those predicting the price of oil – will have to be substantially adjusted.